Not in a recession. Yet.

Friday’s job report has brought rates back up. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage inched up 21 basis points to 5.71% while the 15-year moved up 13 basis points to 4.97%.

current outlook:

A healthy number of job openings (400k) in June and the lowest unemployment levels (3.6%) in years has experts convinced that GDP of Q2 2022 will be positive. In other words, they believe that we are not quite in a recession. Not yet, at least. However, this also leaves the door open for a bigger rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Now, the market is speculating between the Fed implementing a 50 or 75 basis point increase. What it may come down to is this week’s inflation reports including today’s CPI reading, a consumer sentiment report, and producer prices. In the face of this uncertainty, many buyers are pulling their offers. 15% of homes that went under contract in June had their sales agreements canceled, the highest this rate has been since early 2020. Homebuilders are also seeing a 9.3% pick-up in cancellations and have slashed prices and increased incentives in order to offload their homes.

Not in a recession. Yet.

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